Potter-nomics

Here’s an exchange between D.F. Rogers and myself. We have this sort of dialog going on all the time. I’ve been busy lately, and it’s easier to post this than to write something from scratch! As we often do, Dennis and I make reference to the movie It’s A Wonderful Life. I’m posting this without permission from Dennis, and if he sues me I’ll have to shut down the blog!

***Dennis Rogers wrote***
Oh well, so much for the 200 billion pumped into the lending system. Helped for two days.

[Link to Boston Globe article]

I now have a better idea of why so many houses are being foreclosed or simply abandoned – people just walk away. NO MONEY DOWN — 100% Financing.

Okay, you buy a house — NO MONEY DOWN — after a few years the value of the house is much less than what you “paid”. You started with no equity and the little equity you did build up has been wiped out by the drop in prices. You are losing money every month you pay. The payments balloon up even higher. You walk away and rent a house for much less money than you were paying. You really did not lose money. You invested no money at all except closing costs.

Is this the fault of the person buying or the fault of banks doing quick 100% loans without checking? They then were selling the mortgage as soon as the closing to another bank who then sold it to another investor and probably to another. Banks made money along the way, it’s just whoever is left with the loan at the end who is stuck.

Of course, now they’ve gone the other way, tightened things up so much that it is almost impossible to buy anything — and so all those foreclosed houses can’t be sold! Downward Spiral! CRAZY! Only Mr. Potter is wise and rich enough to wait and then to buy when the market hits bottom!

***Doug Pratt wrote***
If George Bailey had joined Henry F. Potter they actually would have made an unstoppable team. With George’s ability to manage the building (construction) part of the operation and Henry taking care of the loans, they could have expanded their reach all the way to Elmira!

This is yet another aspect of the movie that’s there, but isn’t blasted in our faces. “I want to build things!” George tells his father. “But this business of trying to save a penny on an inch of pipe…”

How did those “prettiest little homes you ever did see” come to be? Because George was able to use the construction part of the business as an outlet. He never realized his BIG ambitions, but he was in the construction business, and he was good at it. His weakness was the same as his father’s — a lack of financial savvy and toughness. Potter was right. That’s what makes him such a great character. He wasn’t wrong!

This day-to-day wrenching in the stock market makes it so apparent that these guys are just flailing around, with no idea which end is up. Yesterday was such a GREAT DAY on Wall Street, and already this morning they’re sinking again. It’s ludicrous.

Carlyle Capital Corp., which is managed by Carlyle Group, warned late Wednesday it expects creditors will seize all the fund’s remaining assets after unsuccessful negotiations to prevent its liquidation.

Isn’t the Carlyle Group that scary ultra-elitist bunch that includes Bush Sr.? I thought they were the ones who were supposed to be immune to the market fluctuations suffered by lowly brokerage firms.