The Wrong Sort of Correction

The stock market was inflated and overdue for a correction. It isn’t the Fed’s job to tame Wall Street’s irrational exuberance, but markets always react to rate changes. This is why I think the Fed shouldn’t have cut rates last year. (Another reason is I like earning 4.5% on CDs.)

Rather than continuing to apply more braking power to inflation, the Fed’s easing of interest rates coincided with Wall Street’s optimism over Trump’s “business friendly” return to the White House. In a classic “be careful what you wish for” scenario for investment banks, Trump has whacked Wall Street with his irrational exuberance for tariffs.

Now Trump is saying, “This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates.” Uh, no it’s the WORST time. Here’s a bright, young economist who leaves no wiggle room in his analysis of Trump’s tariffs.

My Tariff Test

After Trump’s tariff announcement yesterday I placed a small order for turntable belts with an outfit in Germany.

The total with shipping is 42,67 EUR ($47.13). With the package arriving after April 5, I’m wondering if I will owe extra as the importer.

We have received your payment. (except for cash on delivery)

“Six or seven trillion dollars coming into our country.” Yet another lie he keeps repeating as if that will make it true. There will be NO money coming into the country from the tariffs. It’s a TAX that will be taken out of the American economy.

Play Your Numbuh!

As an Economics major in college I learned that the Massachusetts State Lottery, then less than five years old, is regressive. Meaning the people who can least afford to play are the ones who spend the most money. But at least the money goes to the state, rather than to organized crime.

The Boston Federal Reserve Bank recently published an analysis of the lottery. If you don’t want to read the article, this graph shows how big the Mass State Lottery is compared to other states.

https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/new-england-public-policy-center-regional-briefs/2024/new-englands-lotteries-trends-in-state-revenues-and-player-spending.aspx

Many years ago, on a lark I once bought a (losing) lottery ticket. The lottery is a voluntary tax, and people are okay with that. Trump’s proposed additional tax cuts will require new revenue. His tariff taxes, that are supposed to go into effect today, will serve that purpose. They won’t be voluntary and they will be regressive.

Boston’s GBH presents this exhaustive history of the Massachusetts State Lottery. It’s a story of Math, the Mob, the Church and, of course, Politics.

The complete series is available as an audio podcast.

https://www.wgbh.org/podcasts/scratch-win